Johar

Written Jan 3^rd, 2026 by Johar Tarabeih

Why Maduro’s arrest was about oil and deterrence—not drugs  

A months-long campaign in the Caribbean, publicly framed as a counter-narcotics effort, allowed Washington to incrementally close operational distance on the Maduro regime. The swift arrest of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026 marked a decisive inflection point, enabling the United States to exert influence over Venezuela’s political and economic architecture, secure longer-term regional alignment, and deter cooperation with designated U.S. adversaries. Operation Absolute Resolve targeted the most durable U.S. adversarial regime in the Western Hemisphere while expanding strategic access to natural resources to leverage economic coercion towards U.S. interests. 

Early January 3^rd, 2026, Venezuelan state television began playing an audio recording of the Vice President addressing the Trump Administration, demanding proof-of-life for President Maduro. Further details of a joint U.S. military and law-enforcement operation in Venezuela continued emerging. Both independent and state media reported a force of low-flying U.S. military aircraft accompanied by explosions throughout the capital city of Caracas. A strike on the mausoleum housing the remains of the now-late predecessor of Maduro, Hugo Chávez, was hit among other strategic military targets. By morning, Maduro’s capture and transport to New York on enhanced 2020 charges of “Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy” drew both statements of condemnation and support from world leaders.   

In the months-long pressure campaign and naval build-up in the Caribbean leading up to the arrest, the Trump Administration repeatedly accused Maduro’s government of involvement with the Latin-America drug cartel “Cartel de los Soles” –designated a Terrorist Organization by the Administration since February 2025. Further rhetoric underscored Maduro’s record of alleged human rights abuses and undermining of democratic processes. Escalation began with the massing of U.S. warships near Venezuela that gained attention in August 2025, by September that same year, strikes in the Caribbean Sea on alleged drug-trafficking vessels provoked international criticism on the unilateral military operations. Mid-December marked the beginning of a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers, resulting in seizure of two vessels off Venezuela’s coasts as of January 3^rd. Just days before the arrest of Maduro, U.S. intelligence services subsequently conducted drone strikes on Venezuelan land, targeting loading docks accused of facilitating drug-trafficking.    

The arrest of Maduro reflects not only drug-trafficking concerns, but a deliberate reinforcement of broader U.S. security interests in the region. Primarily, Venezuela and the greater Centra/South America’s deepening economic and security ties with U.S. adversaries such as China, Russia, and Iran. These countries posture as counterweights to U.S. influence in the region by providing financing, ideological alignment, and essential markets while under U.S. sanctions. Recent developments concerning the U.S. include the development of the Chinese-Venezuelan economic relationship founded on financing, oil/maritime infrastructure, and challenging U.S. hegemony. Iranian-Venezuelan and Russian-Venezualen relations have also deepened, characterized by trade of advanced weapons and vehicles, among other forms of military cooperation. This trend has extended into the greater region, South America’s largest economy and Venezuela’s neighbor, Brazil, is a foundational member of BRICS. The BRICS objective is to develop a multi-polar world by facilitating cooperation of the “Global South”, whose membership includes the largest U.S. adversaries. The BRICS cooperative has increased in relevance to Washington since the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, where comprehensive U.S. sanctions on Russia escalated polarization of world economies. Maduro’s Regime has championed the strongest diplomatic, economic, and ideological ties in the region with these adversaries, threatening U.S. interests.  

The arrest leverages Maduro’s low domestic approval and Venezuela’s dependence on oil revenues to redirect Venezuelan foreign policy for alignment with U.S. interests. In the post-operational address to the nation, President Donald Trump described a plan to de-nationalize Venezuela’s oil, signaling to large U.S. oil firm for future investment into extraction infrastructure projects. This reverses the Chávez-era nationalization of Venezuela’s oil reserves, where majority ownership of oil projects were transferred to state control. The resulting exodus of multinational oil firms led to neglect of the Venezuelan government to reinvest oil revenues into extraction capability, instead opting for greater domestic redistribution. This left the largest proven oil reserves on the planet with deteriorating infrastructure and a shortage of qualified personnel, dropping oil outputs to just a fraction of potential. The arrest of Maduro advances U.S. interests three-fold: First, denationalization of Venezuelan oil adds redundancy to U.S. oil supply chains including mainland refineries, further mitigating risk exposure of destabilizing oil shocks. Second, U.S. firms in Venezuela allows Washington to oversee oil production through regulatory channels, including the ability to limit sale to U.S. adversaries. Bringing Venezuelan oil out of the shadow market, the U.S. multinationals presence address the “Ghost Fleet” of unclaimed tankers allegedly transporting Venezuelan oil to sanctioned U.S. adversaries. This kind of regulatory ability offers a long-term mechanism to enforce U.S. interests in terms of deterring adversarial influence by exerting continuous economic pressure. Finally, the operation and arrest acts as a show of force to to the region perusing relationships un-aligned with U.S. security interests. This strategy poses a serious risk tradeoff, as the Trump administration’s willingness to pursue military action could permanently impact the outlook for longer-term bilateral relationships between the U.S. and its southern neighbors.  

Written January 3rd, 2026 — Will not continue to update, unless for grammar